2008 Draft Predictions, sort of…

Derrick Rose. Derrick Rose? Derrick Rose! All I hear about these days is Derrick Rose. Sure Michael Beasley is one of the greatest talents we’ve seen in quite a while, but questions of his value to either of the top two picks in the Bulls and Heat respectively have pretty much pushed him out of the picture. Honestly, I can’t say it’s too stupid. Though articles I read of his workouts and seeing him in action during the NCAA Tourney really caught my eye, he just has the reeking aura of a Ryan Leaf (NFL sure, but if you don’t know who he is, take 50 points off of your sports fan card and look him up).

That said, I still think all the hype for this Derrick Rose is…well it’s quite frankly stupid. Here’s a guy who averaged about 15 points and 5 assists per game in the regular season, and then explodes for 21 and 6 on the biggest stage. Yeah, I’m being facetious. He’s a really good point guard, I grant you that, and those are few and far between. It takes more than freakish athleticism to make a great point guard, you actually have to rely on your brain more than your ability to split a double team. He was a blip on the radar before the tourney, and in my mind he should stay that way. There are two or three other guards below Rose in all the mock drafts that have been far more consistent than he has.

It doesn’t matter though because the Bulls will be taking their hometown boy. Just the Chicago factor alone does give this pick more credibility; could you imagine Dwayne Wade in his hometown, but the fact remains that I’m predicting right now, he’ll be no CP3, or even a Derron Williams.

The number two pick is farrrr more complicated. I should add a few more R’s there, maybe a couple of A’s as well. What started as a surefire one-two draft has been turned into a circus by the Miami Heat. I’m not gonna cry though. Like I said, I just have this feeling that Beasley could be shouldering too much and could end up burning out his first season. It happens, and it hasn’t happened in a while in the NBA, with all the guys who had high expectations exceeding them like LeBron and Wade, and all the other drafts being already determined to be busts, it’s high time the NBA had a spectacular draft bust.

Hopefully it won’t happen to the Heat. You should really read this article to get a full picture of what the Heat have got on their plate, but I can give you the short version here. There are two well proven talents currently sitting in the NBA that are ripe for the Heat’s picking over the next few seasons. First the least likely option. A man we all know that Riley has been eying for years is within his grasp, a straight trade of picks and players could finally land Riles Elton Brand. The Clippers have the 7th pick, and if things go according to plan the Heat could still see a decent point guard in Jerryd Bayless.

To me, this scenario really makes no sense for the Heat. The only way I could see this one happening is if the Clippers took on another player like Marc Blount to free up cap space for the Heat. Barring that, there just isn’t enough in this to justify trading away a Michael Beasley or OJ Mayo pick. Plus Elton Brand has had some recent injury worries which lessens the value even more.

The one I hope the Heat pull the trigger on is the scenario I hear coming out of the Griz camps. After their ahem trade with the Lakers the Griz are sorely lacking some big men. Trading up from the 5 to the 2 spot to pick up Beasley, draft bust prediction by me though he may be, makes the most sense for them. The deal would have the Heat getting Mike Miller as well as a point guard of our choice (I’m crossing my fingers for Mike Conley) which would really leave us wide open at the #5 spot in the draft. Plus, need I remind Heat fans where we drafted Wade at, perhaps a bit of magic lightning striking twice could be in store for us. Sitting there we could feasibly hope for the likes of Brook Lopez, Mayo, Kevin Love, Jerryd or several other mixtures of bigs and smalls.

Things get even more exciting when considering what freeing up some cap space could do for us. Carlos Boozer, a Miami resident, has an expiring contract next year with Utah, and who wouldn’t want to go from the hellacious West to the defense happy East?

Here’s a for instance for ya:

Mike Conley, who averaged 9.4 points and 4.2 assists playing 26 minutes a game in his rookie year for the Grizzlies, running the point for the Heat. A note, in his last month of ball, where he got consistent minutes and had some experience, he averaged 14.3 points, 4.3 assists, shot 48% from the field and nearly 45% from 3 point land, and throw in 4 ribs for good measure.

Sitting pretty, and hopefully healthy, Dwayne Wade at shooting guard, helping young Conley in late games by sharing the distribution and ball handling role, and remember, if Conley’s one month of a consistent role on the floor is any indication, he’ll provide wade with a great target to distribute to.

I would love to keep Shawn Marion at the small forward position. Having your smallest big average 10+ rebounds per game is a huge plus. More than that though Marion runs the floor well, is always a decent target, can spread the floor with his shot and is a pretty good defender.

Starting in 2009 you can feasibly see Udonis Haslem, as sad as I am to say this, replaced by Carlos Boozer. You now have a legitimate big three to rival Boston, but this one could be even better. Boozer is arguably just as good defensively as KG, and doesn’t lack for intensity, especially on the boards. He’s also a brilliant post scorer and has great strength. With Marion and Boozer running around gobbling up rebounds, and Wade and Conley shooting one on one jumpers, as you’d have to respect both Boozer and Marion wherever they are on the floor, in 2 years time the Heat could be in contention for a title once again.

Finally, the center position. Since I don’t think the Heat can find any way to contend for a championship this year under any scenario, I think it’d be a good time to draft a true center. Nothing spectacular, just a big body to help clear things out in the middle for Boozer and Wade, and can defend reasonably well. With Wade, Boozer, and Marion all able to open up for 20+ a night (if you took their averages at face value you could be looking at 60+ points a night out of the Miami’s version of the big three, and Conley looks to be getting along as a shooter as well), we wouldn’t really be looking to have much scoring out of the center position. Perfect scenario would see Brook Lopez falling into our laps at the #5 pick (not likely), but I also liked the looks of Roy Hibbert. I’d love to see more rebounding potential out of him, and he’s a bit soft looking, but boy can that man block. Whoever we get, I’d love to see ‘Zo stay with the Heat in some capacity (wouldn’t it be brilliant if he became our center’s coach), to help teach the young man about NBA intensity from a guy who anybody would listen to.

Now, sit back and chew on that for a bit. Just think about it for a moment, in two years time this could be the Miami Heat starting lineup. The Heat’s biggest problem, if this falls through, would be finding good backup point guards and centers. We lack so much depth there it’s ridiculous, which is ironic as we have four of each spot filled up. Unless Earl Barron develops more, and quickly, we can’t expect much out of Joel Anthony and Blount (whom we should be looking to get rid of as soon as is humanly possible), and even if he did come back, ‘Zo could only feasibly provide 20 minutes a night tops, probably more like 15 energy packed minutes though.

First though, the trigger must be pulled on the Grizzlies deal (and Boozer must want a more permanent home in Miami, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves). The good news is, I really think the Heat will do this. Beasley just isn’t a LeBron James, and the Heat can and will do better. So expect Miami to be picking at #5 sitting with a new point guard and Mike Miller.

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