O’Neal Trade

So we’ve all heard the rumors by now I’m sure, Heat President Pat Riley has been shopping Marion and top on the list is a probable straight trade (or Marion and one other player possibly Marcus Banks to shunt off his contract), for Jermaine O’Neal. I’ve heard all sorts of reactions to this news, but I honestly see it as a no lose situation, no matter how you look at it.

Whatever people may think of Shaq, him coupled with a healthy Dwayne Wade this year could have spelled title contention, he’s still that good, and we traded him straight up for Shawn Marion, mostly for contract reasons. Marion’s contract ends this year, and it looks like, from his production, neither the Heat nor Marion want to resign. So Pat Riley is doing the smartest thing, he’s getting equal value for Marion in a really good, if oft injured, center in Jermaine.

How is this a no lose situation? Well let’s look at the possible scenarios. First we’ll start with keeping Marion. If the Heat did this, they’d have to make the decision to resign, and Marion would never go for a one year deal, which would leave the Heat with nothing but cap space to show for the Marion-Shaq trade.

Now if we traded him, and hopefully Banks, for O’Neal this does several things, and all without violating one important rule of Riley’s. First the positives. O’Neal, though injured, is a great player, and even when moderately healthy should be good for 15-10, if not 20-10 when completely healthy. He also would bring the Heat instant size and stability at the center position. If he doesn’t pan out, at least we can get him healthy enough to package another trade, since his contract expires after next year, and someone might be able to use him. At that point it would make sense to just let his contract expire (you know the big signing of the summer of 2010). This all has that added bonus, one year contract, going in Pat Riley’s current rule of no contracts beyond 2010, basically getting a Shawn Marion type player, but at a position where we aren’t glutted with players already (notable Jones and Beasley can slide over to play that small forward position), who has an extra year on his contract for us to shop around and make decisions with. Seems like a great idea to me.

So, how would the Heat’s lineup change if we got a moderately healthy O’Neal? Well he would definitely be our starting center, for most games. I still like what coach Spolstra is doing. He’s playing a lineup to try and fit his opponent (just hasn’t had anyone big and consistent enough at center to battle against a lineup like what the Celtics show, ie HUGE). So against a big lineup we would have O’Neal at center, backed up by Magloire. I would have Haslem starting at the power forward, and slide Joel down as back up to him. Beasley would be my starting small forward, he’s a good enough scorer, and quick enough to handle most at that position, and his defense has been improving. I still see some lazy positioning under the basket, and sliding him to small forward would be beneficial since Haslem and O’Neal would be handling the brunt of the rebounding duties. Obviously James Jones, and Diawara would be backing him up as specialists, offense and defense respectively. Starting back court would be the same, as would the back ups. Wade backed up very well by Cook, and Chalmers and Quinn splitting guard duty.

For a small line-up I’d put a twist. I would push Beasley up to starting power forward, and have Haslem back up O’Neal at center. I would start Jones or Diawara at small forward. The one kink I like in the lineup is when we go really small, with a three guard lineup. For instant injection of energy, and scoring, a lineup of O’Neal at center, Beasley at power, Cook playing small, Wade at guard, and Chalmers at guard. O’Neal, Beasley, and Wade can all create their own opportunities, while Cook and Chalmers are really good spot up shooters (if Jones proves he can still shoot with good consistence pull him into the lineup as well if Beasley or Cook aren’t doing hot that night). It would basically be a nigh unstoppable offense since small lineups would struggle to cover three guys who can break a defense down in different ways, and still get to open shooters, and big lineups would only work by stuffing up the center and praying the shooters miss.

In all, there’s a lot to be excited about in this trade. Like I said, at worst, O’Neal’s contract ends next summer, just in time for us to sign LeBron (wishful thinking huh). I for one hope we hear in the coming weeks that O’Neal is indeed recovering well, and the Heat’s medical staff is one of the most well respected in the league for helping rehabilitate injured players back to tip top form. Once that news comes in, I will be backing Riley’s decision to pull the trigger on this deal no matter what O’Neal contributes to the Heat.

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