Why the Draft Lottery Needs to go!

In the upcoming draft, the Portland Trail Blazers are set to take the first pick. But do they really deserve to be in this position? I don’t think that anyone would argue that they were the worst team this past season; although to be fair, they have been consistently bad for quite a while now. Nevertheless, many feel that other teams were far more deserving of the number one pick. Others have proclaimed the draft to be “basketbawful.” Shouldn’t it be the team with the worst record that gets the first pick? Why is the NBA the only major sports league that has a lottery? Let’s see if we can’t figure this idiotic situation out.

Why a Lottery?

Well, let’s start with what the lottery is. First, the teams eligible for this lottery are those that do not make the playoffs. Then, the NBA does this suspicious lottery process, ping pong balls and all, that determines the order of the picking. It used to be that every team had an equal shot at the best pick, but now the team’s chance are weighted based on their record (the worst record gets the best chance). Obviously, with this system, it is not always the worst team that gets the best pick.

At this point, you may be thinking, “Why not just do like the NFL and allow the worst record to pick first?” Well, unfortunately, their are several severe problems with that method. First, a football roster is huge. One player can hardly ever turn a teams fortune. The only position that can possibly do that is a quarterback, but the risk is so high for picking a player at that position, that it may not be worth it (think of all of the QB busts in the past few years). On the other hand, an NBA roster is small, where one player can carry a team to the Finals, a la Lebron James. This makes the pick extremely valuable. With such a valuable commodity at stake, teams will do anything to get it; including tanking a season. It is sad, but certainly a reality in basketball. After the All Star break and as the season winds down, teams begin to compete for the worst spot. The lottery is supposed to help stop this low balling, while still giving the worst teams a chance to get better. However, there are chronic lottery pickers that can’t seem to get off of the bottom.

Marc Cuban’s Solution

I am certainly no Mark Cuban fan, but he has an interesting idea about how the lottery should go. You should keep in mind that he wrote this while drinking beers… Then again, sometimes the best ideas come from beer drinking. Or at least, at the time they seem like good ideas… Either way, here is his plan:

Replace the lottery with a simple better team record or coin flip based on conference standings. In other words, for the last two teams in each conference , the team with the better record gets the first pick. If its a tie, there is a coinflip. The next to last in each conference face off. The better record gets the 3rd pick, a coin flip breaks a tie, all the way up the standings.

This is an intriguing concept. God knows I would love to see as much competitive action as possible towards the end the season, but this plan definitely wouldn’t work. This would shake out the absolutely worst teams, and they would be helpless; the mediocre teams would always get the best picks, making them better. Then one of the playoff teams would be relatively worse, pushing them into the lottery. But now, they would be the cream of the lottery crop, giving them the best pick. The mediocre and good teams would just be exchanging positions every once in a while, with the worst teams having little or no hope at a shot for the number one pick.

Mark then goes on to suggest that the actual process could be randomized; like it could be a straight up lottery or his competitive idea; a coin flip at the end of every season would determine the method used. Now this would work, because not knowing how the picks will be determined means that there is no real incentive for tanking. Hopefully, the natural competitive nature of the sport would take precedence, and we would have an exciting end to the season. However, I doubt that teams would buy into a random system. They want clear and defined rules. One of the complaints about the current system is its random nature, so this probably would never get implemented.

My Solution

That being said, I have a little plan of my own. The season should be evaluated in two parts; the first half and the second half. No team would start to tank the season from the start, because even they can’t be sure how good or bad they will be. There are always teams that are surprises and the teams themselves can’t even realize that until they have played a bit. So, we could evaluate the first and second half of the season as separate issues.

I would propose that the first half be more heavily weighted. For instance, a loss in the first half could be two points and a loss in the second half could be one point. The team with the most points gets the first pick, and then you move down based on your rank in points. This could rid the league of the tanking problem, while still keeping a well defined system.

Conculsions

It is sad that tanking is even an issue. I mean, how little respect does a team have when it decides to tank a season? I almost want a penalty for this type of behavior, but alas I am not the commissioner. However, I would urge the League to make changes. It may be the only way to get rid of all of the conspiracy theories.

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